With three regular-season games remaining, plus conference championships, it's safe to say we're approaching the "And DOWN the stretch they come!" portion of the 2023 college football season.
At this point, there's basically an 11-team pool from which the four College Football Playoff participants will be plucked: five 9-0 teams (Florida State, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington) and six 8-1 teams (Alabama, Louisville, Ole Miss, Oregon, Penn State, Texas). The Ohio State-Michigan game on Nov. 25 ensures that we'll have four power-conference unbeatens at most, and including likely conference championship games, four of the six teams in the second group will get shots at teams in the first. There are still some solid upset opportunities, too.
In other words, nothing has been decided just yet. The teams with the best national title odds -- Michigan leads the way at 23%, per SP+, and Ohio State is at 25%, per FPI -- are barely in the one-in-four range. We will see plot twists and odd turns. And the 25 entities below are the likely agents of chaos and causes of those twists.
From Ohio State's Kyle McCord to a hypothetical Louisville-Florida State ACC championship game to Iowa State's pass defense, here are the 25 players, units, teams and games that will most directly impact both who will play for and who will win the 2023 national title.
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Day ruiners | Upset-minded QBs
Contender or spoiler? | Biggest remaining games
Difference-makers
The units that could ruin everything
25. Iowa State's secondary. ISU is 4-2 in Big 12 play, just one game behind Texas and Oklahoma State, who are atop the conference, and while an improved offense has been part of the Cyclones' solid showing, the offense is still mediocre at best. It's the defense driving the success.
ISU is 13th in defensive SP+, thanks primarily to an aggressive secondary. Despite almost no pass rush whatsoever, it ranks 17th in passing success rate allowed, 10th in completion rate and -- thanks to Jeremiah Cooper and Beau Freyler (combined eight picks) -- eighth in interception rate. ISU hosts Texas on Nov. 18, and even if the Longhorns' Quinn Ewers has returned from injury as expected, ISU will try to swarm and confuse the Texas passer. The Cyclones might succeed at it, too.
24. Utah's pass rush. Washington and Oregon are still well positioned for the CFP. As things stand, a Pac-12 championship game between the two might be a de facto elimination game. Still, neither is out of the regular-season woods yet. Oregon still has to host USC and Oregon State, and Washington gets Utah and Oregon State in the next two weeks.
Oregon manhandled Utah two weeks ago, but the Utes' defense is still hard to handle. They force three-and-outs 44% of the time (third in FBS), and while UW's Michael Penix Jr. is one of the hardest QBs in the country to pressure, Utah's pass rush, led by star Jonah Elliss, might be up to the task: The Utes rank eighth in sacks per dropback. They're first in third-down conversion rate allowed, too.
23. Florida's run game. Florida, the last regular-season opponent for playoff hopeful Florida State, obviously hasn't been great in 2023. The Gators are 5-4 and will be underdogs in each of their final three regular-season games.
They are still a unique out, however. The Gators' lines are huge, and the duo of Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne has combined for 1,084 rushing yards at 5.6 per carry. They might be able to take advantage of what has easily been FSU's biggest weakness to date. The Seminoles rank only 88th in rushing success rate and 56th in rushing success rate allowed. FSU will definitely win the passing game, but Florida could win the ground attack in this one. That makes an upset at least a slight possibility.
22. Miami's pass rush. Miami plays both of the ACC's playoff hopefuls (FSU and Louisville) in the next two weeks. The Hurricanes have been inconsistent and unpredictable of late, losing three of their past five, but have been continuously disruptive up front. They rank 13th in sacks per dropback (8.6%) and 23rd in stuff rate -- run stops at or behind the line (22.3%).
They can force you into second- or third-and-longs, and while they've been a little spotty when it comes to stopping third-and-longs, you still don't want to be there. FSU's Jordan Travis has been excellent on passing downs, but this could be an issue for Jack Plummer and the Louisville attack: The Cardinals are only 54th in passing downs success rate.
21. Oregon State's run game. OSU indeed still has opportunities to wreck both Washington's and Oregon's hopes and dreams. (This is especially true for Oregon -- the Ducks would be eliminated from contention with another loss.) The Beavers are six total points from an unbeaten record themselves, and they're a solid 16th in SP+, which projects them as only a 2.4-point underdog to UW at the moment.
The main driver of success: a ruthless run game. The Beavers rank third in rushing success rate, with backs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick averaging a combined 146 yards per game at 5.9 yards per carry. Oregon ranks 39th in rushing success rate allowed, and Washington ranks a dire 124th. OSU could be a serious problem for either or both defenses.
20. Penn State's defensive front. James Franklin's Nittany Lions are playing dual roles in this CFP race. At 8-1, they're contenders themselves, but as the first good team Michigan has faced all season -- seriously, no previous Michigan opponent ranks in the SP+ top 50 at the moment -- they are also potential spoilers for what has thus far been a rampant team.
Spoiling the Wolverines' party, however, will require much better effort up front. Michigan rushed for 418 yards against PSU last season; it was a statement performance, and while the Nittany Lions have been excellent on D this year -- fourth in defensive SP+, third in success rate allowed (fourth against the run), first in sack rate -- slowing Michigan down is something no one has done in almost a full calendar year.
Spoiler QBs
19. Tyler Van Dyke, Miami. Again, Miami gets shots at both Louisville and FSU in the coming weeks, and against the best defense he faced this year (Texas A&M's), back in September, Van Dyke was spectacular: He went 21-for-30 for 374 yards, five touchdowns and a 96.6 Total QBR. That QBR has sunk below 40 in three of the past four games, however, and Miami's once-promising progress has ground to a halt. TVD's potential is obvious, as is that of his receiver trio (Xavier Restrepo, Jacolby George, Colbie Young). But pulling a late-season shocker will require summoning some September magic.
18. Joe Milton III, Tennessee. The cannon-armed Milton was one of the most fascinating players to talk about during the offseason. The senior was getting a third chance to become a star, and it was easy to predict that he might either have a Heisman-level season or get benched for blue-chip freshman Nico Iamaleava by the end of September.
Instead, Milton has been ... fine. Solid. Thirty-third in Total QBR. Tennessee fell at Florida and Alabama, but a recent uptick in performance has the 7-2 Vols up to 11th in SP+, which projects them as only a 6.5-point underdog hosting Georgia on Nov. 18. The Vols have an excellent defense, and with a strong performance from Milton, could throw a hell of a scare into the Dawgs.
17. Caleb Williams, USC. The likely final games of the defending Heisman winner's college career won't have massive stakes. Thanks once again to dreadful defense, USC has lost three of its past four games, dropping the Trojans from the AP poll and all but eliminating them from the Pac-12 race. (They currently have a 3.9% shot, per SP+.) Williams is still brilliant, and USC still ranks first in offensive SP+, but the best goal left on the table for USC in 2023 is wrecking Oregon's season in Eugene this coming weekend.
It could technically happen! USC has scored at least 30 points in 21 of Williams' 24 games with the Trojans; this offense can turn any game into a track meet, even if this defense can also lose any track meet.
Potential contenders, potential spoilers
16-14. Jack Plummer, Drew Allar and Jaxson Dart. Louisville, Penn State and Ole Miss are all 8-1 and potentially one major upset of an unbeaten -- Louisville against FSU in a theoretical ACC championship, Penn State against Michigan, Ole Miss against Georgia -- away from throwing serious complications into the CFP race (and giving themselves a shot at glory).
All three have flashed hints of upside this season, just as all three have hinted at weaknesses.
Dart is at the helm of a typically explosive Lane Kiffin offense. The Rebels average 3.1 points per drive (ninth nationally), and 31% of their completions have gained at least 20 yards (second). Georgia's secondary is as stingy as ever, and Dart will need lots of help from his run game to score. But a few chunk plays go a long way.
Allar has been almost mistake free in his first year as a starter, and I mean that in both a good and bad way. He has thrown just one interception, and he doesn't take many sacks -- he's good at playing things safe. But despite a big arm, he neither attempts nor lands many deep shots. He has thrown only 21 passes 20-plus yards downfield (112th among qualifying passers), and he has completed only 24% of them (117th). It will be almost impossible to beat Michigan without at least a couple of deep shots.
Plummer has been the least consistent of the three, and if Louisville gets a shot at Florida State, he'll have to stare down a dynamite pass rush. But he has proven himself adaptable and capable of either throwing haymakers (18 completions for 388 yards and five touchdowns against BC) or playing safe and efficient ball (70% completion rate against Duke and Notre Dame), depending on what the occasion requires. He's also backed by the best run game of any of these three teams.
The biggest games
Among the 11 teams mentioned up top, there will be up to six games between them over the next four weeks. Three are conference championship games that are likely to happen but aren't official yet. Two more happen this coming Saturday.
13. Dec. 2: ACC Championship. After a number of teams saw promising seasons veer off course a bit -- North Carolina, Miami, Duke -- the race for the ACC championship obviously has a front-runner and a No. 2 favorite. SP+ gives FSU (7-0 in conference play) a 67% chance of winning the title, while Louisville (5-1) is at 30%, and seven other teams are between 0.1% and 0.9%. It's not too late for someone else to barge in the door ... but it's almost too late.
Even with an ACC championship game win, Louisville might need help working its way into the CFP top four -- the Cardinals were 13th in the CFP rankings last Tuesday, and only the No. 9 and No. 12 teams lost Saturday. But there are plenty of loss opportunities remaining for the teams above them.
12. Nov. 11: Ole Miss at Georgia. Georgia was in no way dominant against Missouri in Athens on Saturday, and now come two opponents that grade out even better on paper. The Dawgs' biggest challenge might come against Tennessee in Knoxville in Week 12, but even at home they could take some punches from Ole Miss. Granted, the Rebels probably don't have the defense to pull an upset -- LSU (fourth in offensive SP+) scored 49 points on them, and Georgia is only slightly behind in sixth -- but the offense and a couple of lucky breaks might give them a shot.
11. Nov. 11: Michigan at Penn State. Between Michigan's drubbing of Penn State last year and the PSU offense's meek showing against Ohio State a few weeks ago, it certainly seems like there's still distance between the Nittany Lions and the Big Ten's two top dogs. But Michigan is still listed as only a 4.5-point betting favorite, per ESPN BET, and SP+ gives the Nittany Lions a 37% shot at an upset. This is in no way a slam dunk for the Wolverines.
10. Dec. 1: Pac-12 championship. Oregon and Washington each have a number of hurdles left to clear, and there's slightly less certainty out West than there is in the ACC or SEC. But there's still quite a bit: Per SP+, Oregon has a 44% chance of winning the conference, Washington has a 41% chance and four other teams have a combined 15% shot. And after these two teams played in one of the best games of the season -- Washington's 36-33 victory in Week 7 -- a rematch would certainly be aesthetically appealing. We just have to wait to see if both teams remain CFP contenders between now and then.
9. Dec. 2: SEC Championship. Right now SP+ gives Alabama a 98% chance of winning the SEC West and Georgia a 95% chance of winning the East. These programs have combined to win the past three national titles and five of the past eight, and in that span they've met twice in the SEC championship and twice in the CFP championship. They remain college football's defining programs, and there's a 93% chance that we'll get another heavyweight battle between them. Current rankings suggest Alabama might not be guaranteed a CFP spot with a win -- and on the flipside, Georgia wouldn't be guaranteed a berth with a loss, like 2021 -- but the odds are still pretty high.
8. Nov. 25: Ohio State at Michigan. In nine years of the CFP, the winner of Michigan-Ohio State has reached the playoff six times, and in 2022, the loser made it as well. Since the start of 2021, the Wolverines and Buckeyes have gone a combined 60-2 in the regular season against teams that aren't Michigan or Ohio State.
This is the biggest regular-season game in college football, and the stakes are as high as ever this season. With Michigan Spygate dominating headlines six days a week at the moment, the temperature for this rivalry might be as high as it has been since the Schembechler vs. Hayes days. A must-watch, to say the least.
The difference-makers
The top seven players on the list are maybe the most important players on the contenders for which they play. Most, but not all, are quarterbacks for obvious reasons.
7. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan. He's second nationally in Total QBR, third in completion rate and fourth in yards per dropback. He was excellent in last season's most important games. Against Ohio State and in the CFP against TCU, he was a combined 32-for-58 for 606 yards with five touchdowns and two picks. He runs well when he needs to. But he rarely needs to, and ... well ... he hasn't really had to do anything in 2023. He has thrown all of nine passes in the fourth quarter this season, and five came in Saturday's 28-point win over Purdue.
Michigan has romped to 9-0 without asking too much of its QB, but his moment will come, be it against Penn State or Ohio State or in the Big Ten championship. If last season is any indication, he'll respond to the moment.
6. Jalen Milroe, Alabama. I could have included Alabama on the "potential contenders, potential spoilers" portion of this list, considering the Tide's current playoff odds (18%, per SP+) are only slightly better than Penn State's (13%). But consider it a habit -- when a team has won six of the past 14 national titles, and it's on the border between primary and secondary contender, it gets the benefit of the doubt.
At this point, so does Milroe. He's up to 13th in Total QBR after Saturday's masterful performance against LSU (219 passing yards, 167 pre-sack rushing yards, four touchdowns), and he has produced a QBR of 94 or higher in three of his eight starts. Even with a major sacks issue, he still ranks 20th nationally in yards per dropback, and in the LSU game he served a clear reminder that, when he has to in big games, he is still a willing and absolutely terrifying runner. (Seriously, he reaches full speed in one step.) With each passing week, Alabama looks like more of a contender and Milroe looks more like a QB who can take the Tide deep into the postseason.
5. Bralen Trice, Washington. It's so easy to be seduced by Penix and the Washington offense. The Huskies have scored at least 41 points in six of nine games, and if they can reach the CFP and play in 14-15 games, Penix still has a shot at 5,000 passing yards for the season.
It's also quite easy to be worried about the defense. It isn't USC-level bad, but Washington ranks just 37th in defensive SP+, 61st in points allowed per drive and 123rd in yards allowed per drive. This is a bend-don't-break unit in the extreme, and it's hard to bend all the way to the national title without breaking. Washington needs more disruption than it has gotten -- the Huskies are 131st in both stuff rate and sack rate, which is shockingly bad -- and that starts with Trice, a projected first-round lineman who has just four tackles for loss and three sacks.
4. Trey Benson, Florida State. Travis is a known entity at quarterback. He's sixth in Total QBR, and in Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman (when healthy), he has maybe the best receiver duo in college football. But the Seminoles' run game is an anchor around his neck at the moment.
That's not to say the run game is bad. Benson and backup Lawrance Toafili are averaging 6.6 yards per carry, after all. But the Noles are just 88th in rushing success rate, and it's knocking them behind schedule pretty frequently. Travis and the passing game usually bail them out, but it leaves them vulnerable to droughts. You don't win the national title with droughts. Benson is explosive, but a few more 5-yard gains in place of 2-yard gains would go a long way.
3. Quinn Ewers, Texas. Over the past two weeks, with Ewers out because of a shoulder injury, Maalik Murphy grew into his role as fill-in starter, and Texas both pummeled BYU and survived an overtime battle against Kansas State. Ewers could return soon, but even without him, the Horns should have too much against a TCU team that has lost four of five. But winning the Big 12 Championship -- likely against either Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Kansas State -- might require higher-level QB play that only Ewers can provide.
Ewers will also have to provide it. He has improved dramatically in 2023, but these next few games will be the biggest of his career. He threw two interceptions in the loss to Oklahoma, and his Total QBR has both topped 90 in two games and slumped below 65 in three. Good Quinn will be required down the stretch.
2. Carson Beck, Georgia. Beck is basically wearing the shoes McCarthy wore last season -- showing lots of upside and steering an awfully snazzy ship without really being tested all that much. Beck is 10th in Total QBR, sixth in completion rate and ninth in yards per dropback, and when Georgia found itself unexpectedly tied late against Auburn, he drove the Dawgs right down the field -- with loads of help from star tight end Brock Bowers -- for the winning points. His tests are only beginning in 2023, and while he'll probably pass them ... he still has to pass them.
1. Kyle McCord, Ohio State. It is both a burden and a blessing to be Ohio State's starting quarterback. On one hand, you oversee an offense that's almost too talented to fail, and most of your passes will be directed at any of countless former blue-chippers in the skill corps. Your statistical floor in this job is higher than most ceilings.
On the other hand, the pressure has to be overwhelming. You're trying to clear a bar set by Braxton Miller, J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud. You're piloting an offense for which ranking as low as 16th in offensive SP+ seems like a crippling failure. And at the moment, said offense ranks 16th! The Buckeyes are fielding one of their best defenses in recent memory and have yet to allow more than 17 points in a game this season. But they've also scored 24 or fewer points in four of nine games; they haven't had more than four such games since 2011. McCord's not really doing anything wrong -- he's ninth in Total QBR and 16th in yards per dropback -- but again, the bar is stratospheric. And if the defense ever slips up, be it against Michigan or in the CFP itself, he'll have to prove he can put up huge numbers against a big-time team. History suggests the Ohio State quarterback will do just that, but with Beck, we still have to see him do it.