- Close
ESPN Senior Writer- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
Week 11 brought some close calls for unbeaten teams (Washington, Florida State), but no stunning upsets to shake up the top of the bowl hierarchy.
Rather, the teams at the very top -- Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State -- asserted themselves with strong showings and one-loss contenders Alabama, Oregon and Texas stayed in the hunt.
Further down the pecking order, more teams reached the magical six-win threshold for bowl eligibility, including high-profile programs such as Clemson, Auburn and even Texas A&M, which made some other news as well.
Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are here to sort out what Week 11's results mean for the entire bowl picture, making their projections for all 43 games, plus offering their takes on the CFP picture, teams that helped their cause and the games they'd be most excited to see.
All times Eastern
College Football Playoff
CFP National Championship presented by AT&T
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Monday, Jan. 8, 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Michigan
CFP Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
Monday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Washington
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Oregon
CFP Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Monday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. Florida State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Florida State
CFP breakdown
Bonagura: After another week without any upsets to impact the playoff picture, there are no major changes. It still looks something like this:
Let's assume Michigan and Ohio State both win next week, and the winner of their matchup in the regular-season finale goes on to win the Big Ten title. In this scenario, that team will wind up either No. 1 or No. 2 in the final CFP rankings. Straightforward. As things sit, the loser of Michigan/OSU is unlikely to get in, but never underestimate the possibility of chaos to throw off the status quo.
In the SEC, if Georgia wins out, it's the No. 1 or No. 2 team. If Alabama wins out, things could get interesting. In the case where Michigan/Ohio State, Washington and Florida State are all undefeated and Texas -- which beat Alabama -- is the Big 12 champion at 12-1, it stands to reason that the SEC could get left out. There is no way to justify leaving an undefeated Power 5 champion out of the playoff for a team with a loss, leaving the final spot for either Texas or Alabama. Then it would take incredibly faulty logic to go with the team that lost the head-to-head matchup.
The possibility of Georgia backing in at 12-1 if it were to lose to Alabama exists, but, again, it would require a series of unlikely results.
There are still too many variables to account for every possibility here, but most of them can be guided by the CFP rankings. Oregon, as the top-ranked one-loss team, is in a good spot if it wins out. Washington and Florida State have slim margins for error, but a regular-season loss would be tough to overcome -- especially for the Seminoles.
For Texas, the recipe is to keep winning and root for Alabama.
Heather Dinich explains why Georgia deserves the top spot in the upcoming CFP rankings.
Schlabach: My top four teams remain unchanged after Georgia, Michigan, Oregon and Florida State held serve, although the first three were once again more impressive than the last.
Two-time defending national champion Georgia probably cemented itself as the team to beat with a 52-17 rout of Ole Miss at Sanford Stadium on Saturday night. For all the talk about Georgia's defense, the Bulldogs are pretty potent on offense too. The return of All-America tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey have given quarterback Carson Beck two more proven weapons. Georgia had 611 yards of offense, including 300 rushing. The Bulldogs close the regular season with road games at Tennessee and Georgia Tech before getting their biggest test against Alabama in the SEC championship game Dec. 2.
Michigan picked up its most impressive victory, 24-15 at Penn State, despite not having coach Jim Harbaugh, who was suspended for three games by Big Ten commissioner Tony Pettiti as punishment for the program's sign-stealing scheme. The Wolverines bullied the Nittany Lions, running the ball 32 straight times. Michigan plays at Maryland next week before closing the regular season against Ohio State at the Big House. A judge in Ann Arbor, Michigan, will decide Friday whether Harbaugh will get an injunction to coach in those two games.
I stuck with Oregon over Washington as my No. 3 team despite the Huskies' head-to-head victory over the Ducks earlier this season. Oregon has been the more impressive team to me, especially on defense. The good news is they might get to settle the debate by meeting up again in the Pac-12 championship game. The Huskies have a tricky game at Oregon State next week, followed by a home game against Washington State in the Apple Cup. The Ducks play at Arizona State before meeting the Beavers in their rivalry game.
I stuck with Florida State as my No. 4 team even though the Seminoles were only so-so in a 27-20 win over rival Miami at home Saturday night. With games left against FCS program North Alabama and rival Florida, which is struggling mightily, FSU should finish 12-0. The Seminoles will have to be better in a potential matchup with surging Louisville in the ACC championship game. I also considered Ohio State, Washington, Texas and Alabama for the CFP.
New Year's Six
Friday, Dec. 29
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Texas
Schlabach: Missouri vs. Texas
Saturday, Dec. 30
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Missouri vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Penn State
Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
4 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 1
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oregon vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Tulane
Favorite matchups
Bonagura: I hit this one a few weeks ago, but it's worth resurfacing: A Pac-12 vs. Big Ten Rose Bowl matchup would be the only fitting way to honor the game and its history before the playoff expands, the Pac-12 is reduced to embers and things are never the same. For now, that sets up as Washington vs. Michigan, but any combination involving those two schools or Oregon and Ohio State works for nostalgic purposes.
Schlabach: Ole Miss' postseason hopes took a big blow with its 35-point loss at Georgia on Saturday night. The Rebels have a couple of good wins over Tulane and LSU, but will that be enough to get them past Penn State and others for perhaps the final spot in a New Year's Six bowl game? Ole Miss closes the regular season against UL-Monroe at home and at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. The CFP selection committee might not want to put four SEC teams in the CFP and New Year's Six games, and Georgia, Alabama and Missouri seem pretty safe, barring an upset. Ole Miss could end up playing the fourth-best team from the Big Ten -- Iowa -- in the Citrus Bowl. Offense vs. defense. Lane Kiffin vs. Kirk Ferentz. Does it get any more different than that?
Bowl season
Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida A&M vs. Howard
Schlabach: Florida A&M vs. Howard
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: New Mexico State vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Liberty vs. James Madison
Cure Bowl
FBC Mortgage Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Colorado State
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. South Florida
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. Georgia State
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Eastern Michigan
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCLA vs. Air Force
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Air Force
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCF vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Syracuse
Monday, Dec. 18
Famous Toastery Bowl
Jerry Richardson Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Central Michigan vs. Appalachian State
Tuesday, Dec. 19
Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Central Michigan vs. San José State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. New Mexico State
Team that helped its cause
Bonagura: This one flies well under the national radar, but San José State took a huge step toward bowl eligibility with a 42-18 win against Fresno State on Saturday. At 5-5, the Spartans are a win from eligibility with games against San Diego State (3-7) and UNLV (8-2) remaining. This comes after SJSU started the season 1-5.
Schlabach: Missouri didn't stew over its 30-21 loss at Georgia on Nov. 4 and blasted Tennessee 36-7 at home Saturday night. With regular-season games remaining against Florida at home and Arkansas on the road, the Tigers appear headed toward a 10-2 record. Missouri had been outscored 128-48 in its previous two games against the Volunteers. Cody Schrader ran for 205 yards and a touchdown and caught five passes for 116 yards. The former Division II transfer and walk-on is impressive.
Thursday, Dec. 21
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. BYU
Schlabach: Marshall vs. San José State
Friday, Dec. 22
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Troy
Schlabach: Navy vs. Louisiana
Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Texas State
Schlabach: UCF vs. Troy
Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: South Alabama vs. Northern Illinois
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. UNLV
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Utah State
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
7 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Bowling Green
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Toledo
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. USC
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. USC
EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
10:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rice vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Rice vs. Fresno State
Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Ohio
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Georgia Tech
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. UTSA
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Kansas
Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl presented by GoBowling.com
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Boston College vs. SMU
Schlabach: Miami vs. Memphis
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
DirecTV Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: NC State vs. Arizona
Schlabach: NC State vs. Arizona
TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Texas A&M
Thursday, Dec. 28
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Boston College vs. SMU
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. Northwestern
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Oklahoma State
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Utah
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Utah
Friday, Dec. 29
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. LSU
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Kentucky
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Duke vs. Oregon State
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Florida
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Maryland
Saturday, Dec. 30
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
2 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Auburn
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.
Bonagura: Ohio vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Miami (Ohio) vs. Boise State
Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Maryland vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. LSU
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Ole Miss