2024 NCAA Tournament Bracketology

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 11/13/2023 at 6 a.m. ET

Bracketology is back on ESPN.com for its 30th season. From now until Selection Sunday on March 17, we'll keep you up to date on the postseason chances and projection of your favorite teams. Our brackets update Tuesday during the non-conference schedule before shifting to semi-weekly -- Tuesday and Friday -- once conference play hits in earnest in January. We culminate with daily updates throughout Championship Week in March, all with an eye toward the 2024 NCAA men's basketball tournament.

Bracket Watch

Is this a sign of the season to come? One week into the schedule, we have two more changes on the top line. Duke joins opening night upset victim Michigan State in the loss column, allowing Tennessee (at Wisconsin) and Arizona (at Duke) to ride their big road wins to No. 1 seeds. We also swapped Purdue for Kansas for the top overall seed, based on better early wins by the Boilermakers. Elsewhere, it was a big Monday night in the Big Apple. Your intrepid bracketologist was on site for Rick Pitino's return to Madison Square Garden. Coincidentally, two possible bubble teams -- St. John's and Michigan -- were the combatants. Only 125 days until Selection Sunday ... and what a journey awaits.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (DETROIT)

Indianapolis

1 Purdue - aq
16 Tex. Southern - aq/
Sacred Heart - aq
8 Mississippi St.
9 Virginia

Pittsburgh

Salt Lake City

Indianapolis

WEST (LOS ANGELES)

Salt Lake City

Pittsburgh

Spokane

Omaha

SOUTH (DALLAS)

Omaha

Spokane

Memphis

EAST (BOSTON)

Charlotte

Brooklyn

Charlotte

Brooklyn

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

MIDWEST (DETROIT)

Indianapolis

Pittsburgh

Salt Lake City

Indianapolis

WEST (LOS ANGELES)

Salt Lake City

Pittsburgh

Spokane

Omaha

SOUTH (DALLAS)

Omaha

Spokane

Memphis

Memphis

EAST (BOSTON)

Charlotte

Brooklyn

Charlotte

Brooklyn

Conference Breakdown

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