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senior NFL national reporter- ESPN staff writer
- Previously a college football reporter for CBSSports.com
- University of Florida graduate
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senior NFL national reporter- Dan Graziano is a senior NFL national reporter for ESPN, covering the entire league and breaking news. Dan also contributes to Get Up, NFL Live, SportsCenter, ESPN Radio, Sunday NFL Countdown and Fantasy Football Now. He is a New Jersey native who joined ESPN in 2011, and he is also the author of two published novels. You can follow Dan on Twitter via @DanGrazianoESPN.
Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season is here -- we're officially at midseason -- and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are breaking down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz of the week.
Let's focus on coaching hot seats, because the Raiders became the first team of the season to fire its head coach last week. Las Vegas let go of Josh McDaniels (and general manager Dave Ziegler) and named Antonio Pierce as the interim coach. Pierce promptly led the Raiders to a big win Sunday over the Giants. What's the latest on that situation, and what other coaching jobs could become available before the end of the season? Who are the top candidates to get interviews in this cycle? And finally, who could be in the mix for Coach of the Year?
It's all here, as Dan and Jeremy answer big questions and empty their notebooks with everything they've heard heading into Week 10. Plus, they picked out which teams are on upset watch and which players should -- or shouldn't -- be in your fantasy football lineups.
Jump to a topic:
What's next for the Raiders? | Who is on the hot seat?
Hiring candidates | Coach of the Year watch
Upset picks | Fantasy tips | Latest buzz
What are you hearing on the Raiders, and what could team owner Mark Davis look for in their next coach?
Graziano: I'm not sure we need to dig up a ton of insider information to explain the decision to fire McDaniels, who took over a playoff team, made it perceptibly worse with each decision and coached it to a 9-16 record over a season and a half before the owner finally realized what a disastrous mistake it was to hire him in the first place.
That said, it seems clear based on everything I've been told that the players had enough with leadership they thought wasn't putting them in position to succeed. The impressive professionalism that star receiver Davante Adams consistently showed in his public comments was a thin veil that barely hid obvious frustration. Behind the scenes, there were meetings and conversations in which players were expressing frustration with team leadership. The offense clearly wasn't working the way it was supposed to work, given the talent level of its players.
Fowler: After asking around, I get the sense that people skills and culture were primary issues -- and ones that essentially plagued McDaniels in two coaching stops. Players aired their grievances in a team-meeting setting, and owner Mark Davis was well aware of some of the frustrations. Players felt overworked in some cases. As one source put it, the tone was set by the regime that if the lights were on in the building, people should be there working. While that sounds like a nice football trope for dedication to the craft, that throwback Patriots-style mentality can be problematic for grown men with families.
Graziano: The sense around the building was that McDaniels just kept insisting they trust him and that it would turn around eventually if they stuck to his plan. As one person close to the situation told me, "Players know. And if all you're ever telling them is, 'I know better,' you're going to lose them pretty quick."
I have been told McDaniels' management style was a little more empathetic in Las Vegas than it was 10 years earlier in Denver, and that the general vibe around the building was less contentious. But the team was clearly not making progress in any helpful direction, and in the end, McDaniels' insistence that he would be proven right if they just stuck to what they were doing didn't make sense to the players or, ultimately, ownership.
Fowler: Then there was the handling of the quarterback position. That McDaniels couldn't coalesce with Derek Carr seemed odd to some people in the building. He turned to a quarterback he trusted in Jimmy Garoppolo, who looked immobile and erratic during the first half of the season, to the point some thought rookie Aidan O'Connell should have been playing earlier. Pursuing a top quarterback in the 2023 draft might have bought McDaniels and Ziegler more time.
Graziano: As for Davis' plans going forward, that's really tough to answer in Week 10. He's going to be looking for someone who can build and maintain a winning culture and program so he doesn't have to hire a new coach for the next 10 or 15 years. That's what every team with a coaching vacancy wants. But I think one of the first questions for prospective candidates has to be, "What's the plan at quarterback?"
Fowler: While this seems like an ideal time to shift focus to future quarterback plans, the Raiders are sitting at 4-5, placing them in the middle of Round 1 for the 2024 NFL draft. This is a deep quarterback class but not that deep. The Raiders will want to see what they have in O'Connell, who sees the field well and throws a catchable ball.
Adam Schefter gives the latest about the firings of head coach Josh McDaniels and GM Dave Ziegler by the Raiders.
Graziano: Will the Raiders be in position to trade up to draft a signal-caller, which they tried but couldn't do in the spring, when the Panthers offered the Bears a better package for the No. 1 pick? If not, who can they bring in, and how viable will that person be as a long-term solution? Botching the QB situation (repeatedly) is a big part of what did in McDaniels. We see around the league how important it is to get that decision correct, so if I'm Davis, I'd like to know what my top candidates plan to do about quarterback.
To be clear: I'm not saying the next Raiders coach has to be an offensive coordinator or a "quarterback guy" -- just that whoever it is will have to be able to articulate and sell Davis on his plan for that position.
Fowler: And they will need a plan beyond that, too. Leadership qualities will be paramount here. I do believe Pierce has a shot at the full-time gig, depending on how the next two months go. Maybe not a strong shot, but a shot nonetheless. We saw how the last interim coach, Rich Bisaccia, galvanized the Raiders on the way to the playoffs in 2021, and perhaps Pierce can have a similar effect.
Let's talk other coaches on the hot seat: What have you guys heard on additional jobs that could come available?
Fowler: After just five head-coaching jobs opened after last season, this cycle should feature more action. Washington is trying to dig itself out of a fourth consecutive losing season. If it can't get it done, Ron Rivera will likely have a tough time holding on with the Commanders. The Bears' Matt Eberflus is now 5-21. To be fair, he inherited a tough situation and has worked admirably to keep things together there. I don't sense much friction in Chicago. Still, that record could be tough to overcome.
The feeling from some inside the league is that the Chargers' Brandon Staley needs to lead a winner in Year 3 in order to survive. He's doing his best after back-to-back wins to get to 4-4. And the tenure of Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles was considered tenuous to enter the season, and a four-game skid doesn't exactly help, but he should have time to redirect the Bucs in a weak NFC South.
Graziano: I do think there are some situations that could go either way at this point, depending on second-half results. Whether it's fair or not (and I don't think it's fair), a bad second half could land Kevin Stefanski on shaky ground in Cleveland. If the Falcons were to nose-dive and Arthur Smith were to continue his stubborn refusal to play the high draft picks given to him on offense, I'd imagine owner Arthur Blank would at least want some answers. And there's the perpetual threat of someone luring Sean McVay away from the Rams for a lucrative TV gig.
Fowler: Plus, there's always one surprise. What should we make of Carolina's Frank Reich, who has started 1-7? Do I think he's in trouble at this moment? No. But a few people I talked to last week openly wondered whether he would be on thin ice. Where do you sit with that, Dan?
Graziano: Like you, I'd be surprised if Carolina moved on from Reich after one year. I wonder a little bit about GM Scott Fitterer, as it can't be sitting well with ownership that No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud looks so much better so far than No. 1 pick Bryce Young, but I have no inside information to indicate that owner David Tepper is upset enough to fire people. We'll stay tuned there, but as of now, I'd say that would be a shocker.
The big one that we have to address is New England, where things are very ugly right now. It has started to seem like this offseason might be the moving-on point for the great Bill Belichick. What are you hearing out of Foxborough?
Fowler: It's a conversation, no doubt, and one that owner Robert Kraft has likely had with himself or with confidantes. Maybe not one as impulsive as whether to fire him, but one addressing the core issue of what Patriots football should look like, and whether Belichick is the man to nurture it. New England is 2-7 and simply not good enough to compete at a high level right now. The quarterback picture is fuzzy. Can Kraft and Belichick work together to strip it down and rebuild it? Does Belichick even want to do that? What would an exit strategy look like? Here's to figuring Belichick and Kraft sit down at the end of the season and hash out these matters.
This isn't a guy you should be firing -- there's more nuance and care involved for a coach with 300 career wins and six Super Bowl rings. But the feeling among some in the league and the interpretation of public comments over the past few years is that Kraft is frustrated by the direction of the team. That has to come to a head at some point.
Graziano: Agreed. This would definitely not be portrayed as a "firing," and whenever/if it happens, it will be treated as a celebration of Belichick's career and accomplishments there, as it should be. I covered the Dolphins when they moved on from Don Shula, the Yankees when they moved on from Joe Torre and the Giants when they moved on from Tom Coughlin. All of those were decisions made by the team, not the coach or manager, but were definitely not announced as "firings." Whatever happens in New England, I'm willing to bet it'll look a lot like those looked.
The question then becomes who takes over. Defensive coordinator Jerod Mayo has been thought of as a leading candidate there for some time and might be the successor, but there are also definitely people there who would wonder whether former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel might be ready for a change of scenery and what it might take to get him out of Tennessee. If this is truly it for Belichick, the decision on who replaces him will be very interesting.
Pat McAfee speculates on potential landing spots for Bill Belichick if he doesn't return to the Patriots.
Who are the top candidates most likely to get interviews in this cycle?
Graziano: We're always looking at the coordinators on the top teams, because that's where the teams with openings tend to look. Offensive coordinators get the most looks, fair or not, so expect to hear a lot about the Lions' Ben Johnson and the Bengals' Brian Callahan. Farther from the center of the OC radar, you'll find the likes of Houston's Bobby Slowik, who has rising-star vibes due to his Kyle Shanahan roots and the instant success of Stroud, as well as Philadelphia's Brian Johnson, who's well regarded as a prospect and could rise up some lists if the Eagles' offense hits its stride in the second half.
Washington coordinator Eric Bieniemy has done a good job with Sam Howell and could be a candidate in Washington if they move on from Rivera -- or in Vegas. And the Chargers' Kellen Moore is always on teams' interview lists. He could be the front-runner to take over if the Chargers move out Brandon Staley, and Moore surely could get interviews elsewhere regardless what happens in L.A.
Fowler: A few offensive adds would be Frank Smith (Miami) and Press Taylor (Jacksonville), and possibly Ken Dorsey (Buffalo) and Todd Monken (Baltimore). Smith is Mike McDaniel's right-hand man, and Taylor has acquitted himself well in Jacksonville, earning more playcalling opportunities from Doug Pederson. Despite Buffalo's uneven offense, Dorsey interviewed well with Carolina in the winter and could be on the circuit again. And Monken nearly got the Packers job that went to Matt LaFleur in 2019. He interviews well.
As far as sleepers, Chicago's Luke Getsy and Carolina's Thomas Brown have head-coaching qualities but are with struggling offenses, which makes it tough. And Minnesota's Wes Phillips and Seattle's Shane Waldron are names to keep in the back pocket.
Graziano: The defensive coordinators do seem to be the stars so far this year, though. What Mike Macdonald is doing in Baltimore has to get people's attention, and his connections with the Harbaugh brothers (he worked for Jim at Michigan in between stints with John in Baltimore) definitely help him. Former Lions coach Jim Schwartz has built the Browns' defense into one of the league's best in his first year and could get some looks because of his experience. Lou Anarumo was a finalist for the Arizona job after the 2022 season and is doing his usual outstanding work in Cincinnati again.
The Chiefs' Steve Spagnuolo and the Cowboys' Dan Quinn are former head coaches whose performances as coordinators this year merit attention, too. Atlanta's Ryan Nielsen has been viewed as a potential head-coaching prospect and is having a strong season, as well.
Fowler: The defensive resurgence is refreshing. Offenses got sideways and put up a bunch of points for a few years, so savvy defensive coordinators adjusted to make life harder on offensive play designs. I expect Macdonald, Quinn and Anarumo to be heavy in the cycle. All are highly skilled and good with people. Schwartz and Spagnuolo deserve it, too, but will they get a second chance? Fair or not, it's no secret that some owners will tilt young and exciting (Schwartz is 57, while Spagnuolo is 63). Still, here's to guessing they get at least another look.
Two candidates on defense I would add: Detroit's Aaron Glenn and Carolina's Ejiro Evero, whose candidacy shouldn't be dunked by Carolina's struggles. He is considered eventual head-coaching material.
Who's your midseason pick for Coach of the Year?
Fowler: Let's look in the AFC North, where several candidates are strong. Mike Tomlin has the offensively challenged Steelers at 5-3, which puts him in the mix. But I'm going to completely cop out and select co-Coaches of the Year: Cleveland's Stefanski and Baltimore's Harbaugh. Harbaugh is a bold decision-maker, walking away from good coordinators in back-to-back years to revamp both sides of the ball. Now, with Macdonald and Monken, the Ravens are humming. He has emboldened Lamar Jackson to take more ownership as a passer.
Meanwhile, Stefanski's big bet on Schwartz paid off, and the Browns are 5-3 with no Nick Chubb, no Deshaun Watson for nearly five games and injuries across his offensive line. The Browns' schedule won't get much easier, but that collective exhale you hear is from Cleveland's building after Watson returned Sunday and played well. Competent quarterback play coupled with this defense can spark a run.
Graziano: I'm with you on your Stefanski evaluation. He has been handed a tough situation with Watson and has stayed steady throughout. If the Browns make a second-half run (and beating Baltimore this week would help kick-start that), he has to get some attention here. We also have to consider McDaniel in Miami and Dan Campbell in Detroit.
But the name that's really on my mind this week for this award is Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota. Absolutely incredible that the Vikings are 5-4 after an 0-3 start, but the standout coaching achievement of the season so far might be Minnesota's Week 9 victory over the Falcons. O'Connell was teaching quarterback Joshua Dobbs the offense between plays after Dobbs, who got there via a trade last Tuesday, had to sub in for an injured Jaren Hall. That they pulled it off says a lot about Dobbs, a literal rocket scientist who surprised no one by picking things up quickly. But it says a lot, too, about O'Connell, who has held this team together when it could have cracked and now has it positioned to make one of the least likely playoff runs of the season.
Robert Griffin III and Domonique Foxworth disagree on what the Giants should do at the quarterback position next season.
When the Vikings won 11 one-score games last season, it was written off by many (myself included) as a fluky accomplishment statistically unlikely to be repeated. But I wonder, looking back, if we gave O'Connell insufficient credit for his role in the team's ability to constantly keep its head up and be in position to win the close ones. If the offense can keep humming with Dobbs under center and the Vikings get into this year's NFC playoff field, this award might well be a runaway.
Fowler: O'Connell has the Vikings believing, and his prowess as an offensive strategist is on full display. The win over the 49ers last month is a prime example.
It's always a compelling story when teams well out of contention make a late-season push, so a few coaches have my attention in that regard: Denver's Sean Payton and Houston's DeMeco Ryans. Denver's defense has settled down, and Payton's offense has an identity running the football with Javonte Williams and the supporting cast. And the Texans might mess around and push the Jaguars for an AFC South crown. Ryans was the hottest name in coaching conversations after last season and is delivering on that promise.
Graziano: Great call on Ryans. He and his staff have the Texans at 4-4 -- a team that a lot of people thought would be among the worst in the league. Plus, along with Slowik and the offensive staff, he deserves significant credit for the way Houston has brought Stroud along so quickly. If the Texans keep winning, Stroud should get on MVP ballots and Ryans will surely get Coach of the Year attention.
What's your top upset pick for Week 10?
Fowler: Packers (+3) over Steelers. We have a battle of top NFL brands and teams that are similar, despite far different records. Both are in transition offensively and have enough playmakers on defense to dominate in spurts. But opponents have outgained Pittsburgh's offense in every game this season. Sure, Kenny Pickett has shown moments of fourth-quarter brilliance, but the offense's struggles through the first three quarters will catch up to the 5-3 Steelers.
Green Bay's offense showed signs of life last week against the Rams, with running back Aaron Jones finally at full health. Quarterback Jordan Love played more efficiently, too. Green Bay (3-5) still has shades of the fringe playoff team I expected it to be to start the year.
Graziano: Jaguars (+3) over 49ers. I know, the idea of the 49ers losing four games in a row feels bizarre. And it's possible they get offensive tackle Trent Williams and receiver Deebo Samuel back this week, which would obviously change things for their offense in a positive way.
But the Jags, in case you forgot while they were on bye, are the hottest team in the league, having won five games in a row. And every week, it seems like we get a result (Ravens-Seahawks? Bengals-Niners? Ravens-Lions?) that affirms just how much better the really good AFC teams are than the really good NFC teams. Both of these squads are coming off byes and should be raring to go, but give me the AFC side as the home team keeps its win streak rolling.
What's your fantasy football call of the week?
Graziano: Just announced as the new starting QB in Tennessee, Will Levis is a legitimate streaming play this week against a Tampa Bay defense that's allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Levis isn't going to throw four touchdowns every week the way he did in his first start, but he looked good last Thursday against the Steelers, and the team isn't afraid to let him throw it downfield.
He was the 33rd pick in the 2023 draft, and it's absolutely not out of the question that the developmental work the Titans' coaching staff -- particularly passing-game coordinator/QBs coach Charles London -- has done with Levis since the spring has him in position to be an effective starter at this point in his career. If nothing else, the matchup offers opportunity for Levis to help you out in a week when Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa and Matthew Stafford are all on bye.
Fowler: Play Tampa Bay's Cade Otton as a tight end or flex option. Otton is coming off season highs in targets (nine), receiving yards (70) and touchdowns (two) in Week 9. The Bucs are committed to the running game to complement Baker Mayfield, and the results have been middling. So a reliable target over the middle can help balance out the heavy dose of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the outside.
What else are you hearing this week?
Fowler's notebook:
• The Bears are holding out hope that quarterback Justin Fields (right thumb) can re-enter the lineup Thursday vs. Carolina. Though it'd be a tough task on a Thursday turnaround, Fields handled limited practice work over the past few days, and he has been determined to work his way back, thus avoiding injured reserve a few weeks ago. Fields had one of his better games on Thursday night back in Week 4 with a win over Washington, and he's hoping to rekindle that magic. The Panthers are preparing for both quarterbacks, Fields and backup Tyson Bagent.
Also, Chicago's running game could get a lift from tailback Khalil Herbert, who's a candidate to be activated off IR for Thursday night. He's trending in the right direction.
• Dobbs is one of the league's best stories in Minnesota. Since Pittsburgh drafted him in 2017, he has been paid by eight different NFL franchises. He has been traded four times. The Steelers gave up on him, as did other teams. Now he ranks 18th in QBR (52.8), sandwiched between Stafford and Carr, despite being asked to play on short notice in both Arizona and Minnesota. Dobbs has $7.4 million in career earnings but is now set to surpass that in free agency in March.
"He's earned high-level No. 2 status," an AFC executive said. "A guy who can start games for you if you need. And that pays pretty good money."
Consider Jacoby Brissett, who earned a one-year, $10 million contract with $8 million guaranteed from the Commanders after performing well as a bridge starter for Cleveland. That could be Dobbs' lane.
• Carson Wentz's long wait is over. He has been working out for months while awaiting this chance from the Rams, who had reached out earlier in the season before making a deal to sign Wentz as their primary backup this week. To my knowledge, this is the first tangible opportunity Wentz received since becoming a free agent. He corresponded with a few teams, including Kansas City once upon a time, but this was a mostly quiet market. As one quarterbacks coach told me recently, Wentz is still better than some of the passers trotted out there on Sundays.
Last season, McVay helped Mayfield rebound from previous failure. Perhaps he can do the same for Wentz this year.
• Despite injuries knocking out both top quarterbacks, Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor, the Giants will not be making a big splash at the quarterback position. It looks like they are rolling with Matt Barkley, Tommy DeVito and free agent Jacob Eason, who signed to the practice squad Tuesday. So it will be a collection of second- and third-stringers for the Giants for this week, and possibly longer. This has been the norm for the NFL quarterback ecosystem that's approaching 50 passers with in-game experience this season.
• Kyler Murray's return sparks a new season for Arizona, which wants to see what it has in the talented thrower. Murray won't have a stellar supporting cast around him, but if he plays well, that gives Arizona flexibility this offseason. A front office with roster deficiency problems could leverage a high pick in a loaded quarterback class for massive capital, should it decide Murray is the guy in 2024. If not, Murray would have trade value, too. This seems like a win-win.
And it should be noted that Murray was diligent with his rehab over the past nine months and made good-faith efforts to ingratiate himself and get to know teammates better. Maybe all of this leads to something. Either way, the Cardinals will have a busy offseason rebuilding.
Graziano's notebook:
• To the Murray point, I definitely do not believe the Cardinals have ruled out the possibility he's their quarterback in 2024 and beyond. The coaching staff and front office haven't seen him play since they took over the team, and they want to see him in their system ideally for the rest of the season before deciding what to do. It would be costly to move on from him next offseason -- $48 million in dead money if he were a post-June 1 release, $46 million if they traded him -- but if they decide to pivot to USC's Caleb Williams or another draft pick, that might be a cost they're willing to pay.
It's no coincidence, by the way, that the Cardinals waited to activate Murray until running back James Conner was eligible to return from IR. A strong running game around Murray, they believe, puts him in the best possible position to succeed and show what he can be. Stay tuned on this. Arizona has not made up its mind about Murray's future.
• Jeremy mentioned he doesn't expect the Giants to make a splashy move at QB this season, but don't rule out the possibility of them doing it in the draft after the season. Giants GM Joe Schoen was at the Washington-USC game Saturday night and got a look at USC's Williams, as well as Washington's Michael Penix Jr. ESPN's Football Power Index is projecting the Giants to have the No. 2 pick in the draft, and their outlook for the rest of the season doesn't make you think they'll move down in the draft order.
They owe Jones a fully guaranteed $36 million in 2024 but nothing after that. If they have a chance to take a franchise-changing, generational QB prospect at the top of the 2024 draft, I believe they would do it, giving Schoen and coach Brian Daboll a chance to develop their own guy and build the team around him.
• Don't assume the Wentz signing by the Rams means Stafford (thumb) will be out longer than expected. Brett Rypien's performance this past week indicated to the Rams that their backup situation behind Stafford might not be what they hoped, and Stafford is no longer the picture of durability he was for the bulk of his career. Wentz has experience and is worth taking a shot on in case Stafford continues to miss time, but I have been told the Rams remain optimistic that Stafford can return from his injury in time for their Week 11 game following this week's bye.
• I've heard the Bills were in talks with the Bears on a potential trade at last week's deadline for cornerback Jaylon Johnson but couldn't reach an agreement and pivoted to Rasul Douglas once those talks fell apart.
• The Cowboys poked around for linebacker help at the deadline but obviously couldn't find a deal they liked. And in spite of rumors linking them to the Titans' Derrick Henry, I'm told the Cowboys did not engage teams in talks for running backs. They like their running back room. To that point, don't be surprised to see a few more carries for backup Rico Dowdle in the coming weeks. The Cowboys still believe in Tony Pollard, and they believe their offensive line's performance is a bigger part of their run game struggles than their lead back. But they also acknowledge the run game isn't working the way they need it to, and mixing in Dowdle is one way they could try to address it in the short term.